Home dogs and the hidden value - Sports Articles | Betting Articles | Sports Betting Information | Gambling Articles | Sports Betting Articles

• • Big East Conference Tournament Recaps
• • UL-Lafayette to look for new men's hoops coach
• • 2010 Western Athletic Conference Tournament Preview
• • 2010 Big Ten Conference Tournament Preview
• • 2010 Southeastern Conference Tournament Preview

• Articles Home |
• Articles 2 |

Home dogs and the hidden value

Like it or not, square sports betting is a fundamentally negative EV undertaking. It would be a 50-50 proposition if it weren't for the bookie's vig which pushes the equation below the red line for you. Of course, all the above is only valid assuming that you're betting on a game that the bookmaker managed to balance perfectly. If the game is not balanced for whatever reason though, you may gain an edge that may fundamentally change the EV on your bet. Let's take a look at an example.

Suppose you have a hip favorite taking on a potent underdog on the road. No, make that ANY underdog.

In such cases, it is common knowledge among bettors that squares will stick with the fav. Since squares are usually the majority that means that majority of the money will come in on the fav. What these squares don't know though is just how powerful home underdogs are statistically speaking. It has been proven that home underdogs fare decently SU, so much so as a matter of fact that if one were to just bet the money line on these teams time and time again, he'd walk away with a reasonable profit.

ATS the situation is even better for the dogs and betting them would result in an over 55% win ratio, which is quite excellent again. Why do the squares bet on the fav then? Because they don't know better and squares always love the favorite. The bookmaker however surely knows the real state of affairs and his lines will reflect that, so there isn't really going to be any value, is there?

While the bookmaker does indeed know what's what, and his lines will in theory reflect the correct situation, his balancing attempts will take a huge hit from the square money that keeps flowing in on the favorite. In an effort to regain the balance, the bookie moves his lines (within certain limits of course, in order to avoid getting middled) and that's where the hidden value creeps into the deal. That's the correct time for the sharp bettor to get his money in on the underdog, as - on account of the hidden value - the EV is no longer negative.

The margins for the EV to appear are rather tight though, as the bookie has his hands tied when it comes to large swings in his lines. That means that if a minor tweak in the lines can re-balance the situation, he'll give up the hidden value, but if it doesn't, he won't tweak them at all, and will instead cover the square bets from his own pockets.

That's just one of the perils of bookmaking, and the bookie is certainly not looking forward to it (unless of course there's obvious value in going up against the squares) but neither does the bettor because it kills the hidden value and the EV+.

What exactly is it that makes home underdogs so dangerous (and profitable for savvy bettors)?

Some say it's the home court/field which is indeed one of the most often underestimated handicapping factors. Being disrespected will also often awaken the need to prove oneself, especially in highly competitive athletes. Add to that the lack of pressure and you have a pretty reasonable set of circumstances working in the dog's favor. Whatever the reason, the power of the home underdog is one of the most common sources of EV+ in NFL betting.

A similarly productive source of EV+ is rakeback in poker. A rakeback deal like the full tilt rakeback or the entraction rakeback will offer players a huge edge, one which - unlike the hidden value in sports betting - doesn't need to be thoroughly stalked and researched.